To our dear clients, friends, and family,
Every April we expect a lot of rain, but what we don’t expect is a drop in sales… March stats show a .05% drop in the volume of sales compared to last year, and while this doesn’t seem like much, we’re coming off a high after both January and February saw significantly more sales; 37% and 18% respectively. If you remember, 2023 was the slowest year for GTA real estate in 2 decades, so we were very excited to see January and February’s market stats, and we were a little shocked by the March update.
We prefer to look at this on a more positive note though… the gains we saw in January and February puts Q1 2024 well-above Q1 2023.
Stats for all home types:
Average sale price: $1,121,615 (up 1.2% from March 2023)
Sales: 6560 (down .05% from March 2023)
New Listings: 13,120 (up 15% from March 2023)
Months Of Inventory: 1.89 (up from 1.48 in March 2023)
Sales-Price to Listing-Price Ratio: 102% (up from 101% in March 2023)
Days On The Market: 29 (Up from 19 in March 2023)
The two interesting outliers in our market stats this month are the Days On The Market and the Sales-Price-To-List-Price ratio (SP/LP ratio). Usually, when the sales-price-to-list-price ratio climbs above 100%, the days on the market drop. That’s because the SP/LP ratio is an indicator of bidding war action in our market, and has a clear correlation to demand in the market. However, March was an anomaly because the SP/LP ratio climbed to 102%, and days on the market climbed to 29. Last March, when the SP/LP ratio climbed to 101%, days on the market dropped to 19. And when the SP/LP ratio hit 103% in April, days on the market dropped to 17.
We think this means two things: First, well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods are in high demand, and are selling above asking; Secondly, some sellers are pricing too high, and are lingering on the market. In previous markets, sellers could get away with pricing a home slightly above-market in the spring, because the market catches up to the price very quickly. But this year buyers are more price sensitive.
What we think of this market:
We’re very relieved that home prices have remained relatively stable throughout 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Remember the 33% year-over-year price gain in March 2017? The 18% price gain year-over-year for March 2022? Both of them ended with a significant drop in prices within a few months; 2017 saw a 25% price drop by August, and, 2022 saw a 21% drop by July.
This past year, prices have remained stable throughout uncertain economic times, inflation, and skyrocketing mortgage payments. We think these conditions have taken some of the speculation and hype out of our market, leading to a lower chance of dramatic fluctuations in housing prices.
We think that as rates drop, and buyer’s affordability improves, sales will pick up.
If you have any questions about the market, let us know! We’d love to chat.
Warmest Regards,
Christo and Janette
